Model agreement between climate change scenarios per time slice.

<p>GARP results are depicted above, with Maxent models below. The two climate change scenarios (a2a and b2a) are compared, with area of overlap indicated in maroon, for the three time slices: 2020, 2050, and 2080. A threshold has been applied, allowing for a maximum of five percent omission error based on presence data. Results are depicted in USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic map projection.</p

Brown recluse specimen.

<p>Collected in Lawrence, KS, USA. Scale: 5 mm.</p

GARP-Maxent model agreement for each time slice and scenario.

<p>Maroon signals agreement; thus, blue areas are where Maxent predicted suitable habitat, but not GARP, or vice versa. A threshold has been applied, allowing for a maximum of five percent omission error based on presence data. Results are depicted in USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic map projection.</p

Future niche modeling results for three time slices: 2020, 2050, and 2080.

<p>GARP models are depicted on the left, with Maxent models on the right. Two climate change scenarios were utilized: a2a (liberal) and b2a (conservative). The lime green dotted polygon indicates the distribution of <i>L. reclusa</i> according to arachnologists, as was depicted in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0017731#pone-0017731-g002" target="_blank">Fig. 2B</a>. Suitable habitat for the brown recluse shifts northward with time. A threshold has been applied, allowing for a maximum of five percent omission error based on presence data. Results are depicted in USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic map projection.</p

Percent of suitable niche space for <i>L. reclusa</i>, based on the projected geographic region.

<p>Percent of suitable niche space for <i>L. reclusa</i>, based on the projected geographic region.</p

Percent of niche overlap between present and future models.

<p>Percent of niche overlap between present and future models.</p

Percent of niche overlap between the two climate change scenarios (a2a and b2a) for three time slices: 2020, 2050, and 2080.

<p>Percent of niche overlap between the two climate change scenarios (a2a and b2a) for three time slices: 2020, 2050, and 2080.</p

Present-day niche modeling results in comparison to previously identified distribution.

<p>A) Distribution of the brown recluse based on field studies and literature surveys from <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0017731#pone.0017731-Vetter1" target="_blank">[4]</a>. Note the general congruence between the niche model results and the distribution recognized by arachnologists. B) GARP models are depicted on the left, with the training region above and projection below. Maxent models are depicted on the right, with the training region above and projection below. Occurrence points are mapped onto these models, with lime green points = training data and salmon points = testing data. A threshold has been applied, allowing for a maximum of five percent omission error based on presence data. Results are depicted in USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic map projection.</p

Niche overlap between extant and future models.

<p>GARP results are depicted on the left, with Maxent models on the right. Three time slices: 2020, 2050, and 2080 are illustrated for two climate change scenarios: a2a (liberal) and b2a (conservative). Area of overlap between the extant and future models is portrayed in maroon. A threshold has been applied, allowing for a maximum of five percent omission error based on presence data. Results are depicted in USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic map projection.</p

Hendricks-etal-SuppTable1

Supplementary Table 1. Taxonomic structure of Araneidae and Buccinoid gastropods